Sunday, March 29, 2015

Cubs: 2015 Outlook




We are just a week away from Opening Night at Wrigley Field. The Cubs will start their 2015 season against long time and divisional rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals. This season, the Cubs look to open their window of competitive baseball. The fans have been in baseball hell since Epstein was hired as President of Baseball Operations. Yes, it sounds bad for Epstein but it really isn’t. It was all a part of the rebuild plan. The patience of Cubs fans has been tested during this rebuild, there’s no doubt about it. What needs to be understood is that under Epstein’s control the Cubs have turned a bottom of the barrel farm system into the #1 ranked Farm System in the MLB in 2015. 


It took three seasons of awful baseball and high draft picks, four off-seasons of low risk, high reward signings of players that ultimately get traded, cashing in on their value, for prospects and the gutting of a roster that was full of bad contracts for the Cubs to reach the point that they are now. In 2015, the Cubs are finally primed to make some noise in the National League and people around the MLB are already taking notice. The Cubs are building a monster through the farm system, which is going to be supplemented by the deep pockets of the Ricketts. If this winter was was any indication, the Cubs are now at a point where they can spend big money on players that will help put them over the top with the current nucleus of young players. It was refreshing to see the Cubs take a buyer's approach instead of the sellers they have been the past few seasons. Here is a recap of what the Cubs did this off-season:

Additions: Joe Maddon (manager), Jon Lester (SP), Jason Hammel (SP), David Ross (C), Chris Denorfia (OF), Jason Motte (RP)

Acquired in trade: Miguel Montero (C), Dexter Fowler (CF), Tommy LaStella (INF)

Now with tinkering of the roster done and Spring Training just about wrapped up, here are a few things to watch for during the 2015 season: 

1. Joe Maddon




This was a fantastic pick up by the Cubs. Joe Maddon is as good as it gets in terms of managers in the MLB. He has a laid-back approach yet still commands a locker room. He is well respected by players and is an excellent leader of men.  His intelligence and ability to implement saber metrics (advanced analytics) with old school baseball decision making is second to none, in my opinion. He has the track record to back it up with a .517 winning percentage as a manager. The guy has been in a similar situation with the Tampa Bay Rays and was successful there. It's even more impressive that he did that in the AL East with the likes of the Red Sox and Yankees there. Being able to compete with teams who can outspend you and yet being successful at it is not an easy task. Cubs fans will be extremely happy with this hiring by the time it’s all said and done. He’s the right hire at the right time for this organization.

2. Fountain of youth 

The Cubs are stacked with young talent. We already know about Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo. They’ve been up for a while already. The real names to look for are: Jorge Soler, Kyle Hendricks, Neil Ramirez, Junior Lake, Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez. The development of these guys will be crucial to determine who will be a part of this nucleus for the long haul. A few other names to pay attention to that aren’t on the Major League roster are: Kris Bryant and Addison Russell. These guys are the most MLB ready players in the minors. It’s just a matter of time before they get the call. Kris Bryant had torn it up in AA/AAA last season. He batted .325 with 43 HRs drove in 110 runs. So far in Spring Training, Bryant has a stat line of: .459, 9 HR, 15 RBI in just 13 games. The concern with him right now is whether he’ll stick at third base or move to the outfield. The defense is still a little bit of a liability but the offensive numbers sure make up for it. Let’s not forget the business aspect of this either. If the Cubs wait 13 days before bringing him up, they get an extra year of control. Which means he’ll be a free agent in 2021 instead of 2020. Addison Russell, on the other hand, is the most polished player and MLB ready the Cubs have, in my opinion. The problem is that they have nowhere to play him right now and want to give him another year in the minors. Further down in the minors the Cubs have Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, C.J Edwards and a few others. The odds that we see them at Wrigley Field in 2015 are slim to none. If there ever were a chance, it’d be in September when roster expands to 40.

3. Pitching


The Cubs pitching staff will be something to watch this year. I believe this is one of the most underrated pitching staffs in the league. Not only the starting rotation but the bullpen too. A rotation of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks and whomever the 5th guy ends up being has the potential to do something special this season. If Arrieta can pick up where he left off last season, the Cubs have a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Hammel in his first stint with the Cubs went 8-5 with a 2.98 ERA. They will need a repeat performance from him. Kyle Hendricks, in his first season in the MLB, started 13 games and went 7-2 with a 2.46 ERA. It will be interesting to see if he can carry that performance over or if the league will have adjusted to him. Nevertheless, the Cubs have a pretty solid rotation heading into the 2015 campaign.  The bullpen has on the other hand has been an issue for the Cubs. They’ve blown way to many games for the starting pitchers up until the middle of last year. The relievers and closers have easily cost the Cubs 10 games each of the last few seasons. However, in the 2nd half of the 2014 season, they came on strong and really solidified the bullpen. The 7th, 8th and 9th innings were no longer an areas of concern with Neil Ramirez, Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon. These three were arguably the most consistent and reliable pitchers the Cubs bullpen had in 2014. I expect much of the same from them in 2015. This winter the Cubs added, former Cardinals closer, Jason Motte and lefty specialist Phil Coke. Motte had a nice run with the Cardinals before an injury cut his season short last year. He should add a nice veteran experience to a young bullpen. Not to mention, Motte has postseason and World Series experience. Coke, has had his fair share of struggles but if used wisely (against left handed hitters) he could have some value for this Cubs team. He is another veteran pitcher that could help his young bullpen and provides postseason experience. In house, the Cubs also have Brian Schlitter and Justin Grimm. These both had an up and down season but really came on strong in late July, August and September. 

Prediction: 

Ultimately, this is still a very young and raw baseball team. It's going to take some time for these young players to come in and grow into their role. Once that happens and the team develops a chemistry I expect big things from the Chicago Cubs. I truly believe that Joe Maddon and this coaching staff are the right people in place to bring it all together. This team will have its fair share of growing pains and ups and downs this season. Even so, I expect this to be a very competitive baseball team and win between 82-85 games this season. If all goes well and according to plan, the Cubbies will be fighting for a Wild Card spot come August and September. As for a World Series? They're still one year away.

Marty McFly could go back and put some money down on the 2015 Chicago Cubs. I wouldn't just yet. 




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